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Effective use of Himawari-8 data in Tropical Cyclone monitoring and forecasting

 

General comments

Below are summarised ways in which the increased spatial and temporal resolution and the additional channels of Himawari-8 can assist the Forecaster in detecting, nowcasting and forecasting this meteorological phenomenon. Further information including case study animations etc. can be obtained by clicking on those points highlighted in bold in the below table.

 

Spatial Resolution

  • Tropical Cyclone cloud top features can be resolved in greater detail to reveal features that may indicate changes in the development of the system such as convective "blow ups"  indicating possible redevelopment, gravity waves and the development of cirrus outflow channels with associated transverse cloud banding.
  • Better Brightness Temperature resolution at cloudtop level and within the eye resulting in a better definition of the shape and extent of the coldest regions of the Tropical Cyclone cloudtops. This may give better manual and automated Dvorak Analysis results

Temporal Resolution

In an evolving Tropical Cyclone cloud structure may change in a matter of hours. Rapid scan data permits you to watch these changes and you can adjust your nowcasting /forecasting in accordance with this. Due to the more frequent imaging the continuous movement of clouds around a Tropical Cyclone can be monitored. This permits:

  • Better fix on the system centre during the developing phase, as the more frequent imagery permits near-continuous monitoring of low cloud lines and the low level circulation centre for sheared systems, even if higher cloud is covering part of the systems centre.
  • The central circulation as revealed in the satellite imagery can be tied to the RADAR output as the time intervals of the incoming data are compatible.
  • "False Eyes" can be more easily detected.
  • Sudden convective "blow ups" indicating possible redevelopment of the system can be monitored more closely.
  • Variations in atmospheric shear and its effects on the Tropical Cyclone development can be detected earlier.
  • Better indication of cloudtop pattern changes will assist in Dvorak analysis.
  • More frequent satellite imagery will permit the generation of more frequent and higher density cloud drift winds (CDW)

All this will permit the more accurate determination of the Tropical Cyclone's centre and its intensity. Tracking the path of a Tropical cyclone will be easier. Variations in the path of the Tropical Cyclone (trochoidal motion) can be monitored and accounted for in the nowcasting and short term forecasting of the system.

All this will also permit a more timely verification of NWP, especially the forecasting of the future track of the Tropical Cyclone.

Additional Channels

  • The Day Convection RGB product is useful in identifying areas of enhanced convection on the Tropical Cyclone's cloud shield and spiral bands.
  • The Airmass RGB product is useful in defining warm vs cold and moist vs dry airmasses around and upstream of the Tropical Cyclone which may influence the systems future development.

 

Other supporting references

(to be added soon)